AC MilanvsBenfica
Your call
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AI predictions
8 markets · 4 models
Ask the AIsWho picked what
16 models × 8 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
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Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
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Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
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Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
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Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
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Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
|
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus |
AC Milan -0.25 2/4 models |
AC Milan 4/4 models |
AC Milan 4/4 models |
under 2/4 models |
no 2/4 models |
Benfica 2/4 models |
Draw / AC Milan 3/4 models |
2-1 2/4 models |
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Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
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|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market. |
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GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
No pick on this market.
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
No pick on this market. |
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o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
54%
AC Milan -0.25 |
52%
AC Milan |
58%
AC Milan |
53%
under |
51%
no |
49%
AC Milan |
32%
Draw / AC Milan |
18%
2-1 |
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
54%
AC Milan -0.25 The quarter-goal line captures Milan's home edge without full two-goal expectation. Benfica's five straight wins add caution but European tr...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
AC Milan AC Milan hold a slight edge at home against Benfica based on historical European pedigree and home record. Benfica arrive in strong form but...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
58%
AC Milan Milan's home advantage and set-piece threat outweigh Benfica's recent win streak. Rest days are comparable so fatigue is neutral. Historical...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
under Both sides prioritize defensive structure in European away games, and Milan concede few at home. Set-piece focus often leads to low-scoring...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
51%
no Clean-sheet rates for Milan at home support the no-BTTS side. Benfica's attack is potent but faces a compact Milan defense. Limited rest may...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
49%
AC Milan Milan rarely win by two clear goals against top Portuguese sides. Benfica's current form suggests they can keep margins tight. Home spread b...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
32%
Draw / AC Milan Games often stay level at half-time before Milan push late. Benfica's high press can concede territory after the break. Form split supports...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
2-1 2-1 aligns with expected low-to-medium scoring and Milan's home edge. Benfica rarely keep clean sheets on the road in Europe. Training data... |
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Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 8 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
62%
Benfica +0.5 |
38%
AC Milan |
54%
AC Milan |
60%
Over |
68%
Yes |
60%
Benfica |
18%
Draw / AC Milan |
18%
2-1 |
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
62%
Benfica +0.5 Benfica +0.5 means Benfica wins or draws the match, which aligns with their strong away form and the expected closeness of this European fix...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
38%
AC Milan Based on my training data up to 2025-09, AC Milan holds a significant home advantage in European competitions, which slightly edges out Benf...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
54%
AC Milan Removing the draw contingency, AC Milan's home advantage and slightly better rest give them a narrow edge over Benfica. Benfica's excellent...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
Over Both teams have demonstrated significant attacking prowess in their recent five matches, with AC Milan scoring 11 goals and Benfica scoring...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
68%
Yes AC Milan has scored in all of their last five home games, and Benfica has scored in all of their last five away games. Both teams possess st...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Benfica Given the expectation of a tight contest and Benfica's excellent defensive record away from home, it's unlikely AC Milan will win by a margi...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
18%
Draw / AC Milan Given the tactical nature of European games and the quality of both teams, a cagey first half leading to a draw is probable. AC Milan's home...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
18%
2-1 A 2-1 scoreline for AC Milan aligns with the prediction of a narrow home win, both teams scoring, and the 'Over 2.5 Goals' market. Milan's a... |
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|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
AC Milan +0.25 |
55%
AC Milan |
60%
AC Milan |
55%
over |
55%
yes |
55%
Benfica |
45%
Draw / AC Milan |
25%
1-1 |
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
55%
AC Milan +0.25 AC Milan's strong home form and the potential for a draw are key here. Giving AC Milan a slight advantage on the handicap accounts for their...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
AC Milan AC Milan has a stronger recent home record, while Benfica has a perfect away record. Given the slight edge in overall form and home advantag...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
60%
AC Milan Considering AC Milan's strong home form and slight rest advantage, they are more likely to secure a result. This market removes the draw opt...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have shown a good scoring record in their recent matches, with Benfica particularly potent away. This suggests a higher likelihoo...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
55%
yes AC Milan's defense has conceded 6 goals in their last 5 home games, while Benfica has conceded 3 goals in their last 5 away games. Given bot...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Benfica Benfica's perfect away record and strong scoring rate suggest they can overcome a one-goal handicap. AC Milan's home draws indicate they can...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
45%
Draw / AC Milan AC Milan's home draws suggest they might start slowly but finish stronger. Benfica's away form indicates they can score, but AC Milan's home...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
25%
1-1 Given the strong attacking potential of both sides and AC Milan's tendency for draws at home, a 1-1 draw seems the most probable outcome. Bo... |
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DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
52%
AC Milan -0.25 |
46%
AC Milan |
58%
AC Milan |
54%
under |
52%
no |
34%
AC Milan -1 |
28%
AC Milan / AC Milan |
14%
1-0 |
|
|
Asian handicap
?
Asian handicap
Asian Handicap. Like a spread, but quarter-lines split the stake — you can half-win or half-push.
52%
AC Milan -0.25 Milan on home soil, unbeaten, against a travelling Benfica side is worth a quarter-ball edge. The handicap reflects the slim home advantage...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
46%
AC Milan No live access was available, so this is based on training data through 2025-09. AC Milan at San Siro are a tough proposition in European ni...
Draw no bet
?
Draw no bet
Market explanation coming soon.
58%
AC Milan With the draw removed, Milan's home solidity and Benfica's away travel in Europe tilt it toward the home side. Benfica's form is excellent b...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
54%
under Both sides have shown controlled, low-conceding runs — Benfica shipped only 3 in 5, Milan 6 in 5. European knockouts and group-stage openers...
Both teams to score
?
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score. Yes = both teams score at least once. No = at least one team is shut out.
52%
no Benfica's defensive record is excellent and Milan have shown they can keep things tight at home. With both teams capable of a clean sheet, t...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
34%
AC Milan -1 A one-goal Milan win is far more likely than a two-goal margin given Benfica's defensive solidity. The -1 spread is a stretch against a side...
Half-time / Full-time
?
Half-time / Full-time
Half-time / Full-time. Outcome at the break AND at the final whistle — both have to match for the pick to land.
28%
AC Milan / AC Milan Milan are most likely to lead at half and hold on given home advantage and Benfica's travel. However, European games often see a cagey first...
Correct score
?
Correct score
Correct score. The exact final score (e.g. 2-1). Highest-variance market — most picks lose, but the payouts are big when they hit.
14%
1-0 A low-scoring, tight affair is the central scenario — Milan edging it 1-0 or a 1-1/2-1 outcome. Benfica's defensive record supports few goal... |
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Asian handicap
ConsensusAC Milan -0.25 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
54%
AC Milan -0.25
The quarter-goal line captures Milan's home edge without full two-goal expectation. Benfica's five straight wins add caution but European tr...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
62%
Benfica +0.5
Benfica +0.5 means Benfica wins or draws the match, which aligns with their strong away form and the expected closeness of this European fix...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
AC Milan +0.25
AC Milan's strong home form and the potential for a draw are key here. Giving AC Milan a slight advantage on the handicap accounts for their...
DeepSeek V3
52%
AC Milan -0.25
Milan on home soil, unbeaten, against a travelling Benfica side is worth a quarter-ball edge. The handicap reflects the slim home advantage...
Match winner
ConsensusAC Milan 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
AC Milan
AC Milan hold a slight edge at home against Benfica based on historical European pedigree and home record. Benfica arrive in strong form but...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
38%
AC Milan
Based on my training data up to 2025-09, AC Milan holds a significant home advantage in European competitions, which slightly edges out Benf...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
AC Milan
AC Milan has a stronger recent home record, while Benfica has a perfect away record. Given the slight edge in overall form and home advantag...
DeepSeek V3
46%
AC Milan
No live access was available, so this is based on training data through 2025-09. AC Milan at San Siro are a tough proposition in European ni...
Draw no bet
ConsensusAC Milan 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
58%
AC Milan
Milan's home advantage and set-piece threat outweigh Benfica's recent win streak. Rest days are comparable so fatigue is neutral. Historical...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
54%
AC Milan
Removing the draw contingency, AC Milan's home advantage and slightly better rest give them a narrow edge over Benfica. Benfica's excellent...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
60%
AC Milan
Considering AC Milan's strong home form and slight rest advantage, they are more likely to secure a result. This market removes the draw opt...
DeepSeek V3
58%
AC Milan
With the draw removed, Milan's home solidity and Benfica's away travel in Europe tilt it toward the home side. Benfica's form is excellent b...
Over / Under
Consensusunder 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
under
Both sides prioritize defensive structure in European away games, and Milan concede few at home. Set-piece focus often leads to low-scoring...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
60%
Over
Both teams have demonstrated significant attacking prowess in their recent five matches, with AC Milan scoring 11 goals and Benfica scoring...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
Both teams have shown a good scoring record in their recent matches, with Benfica particularly potent away. This suggests a higher likelihoo...
DeepSeek V3
54%
under
Both sides have shown controlled, low-conceding runs — Benfica shipped only 3 in 5, Milan 6 in 5. European knockouts and group-stage openers...
Both teams to score
Consensusno 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
no
Clean-sheet rates for Milan at home support the no-BTTS side. Benfica's attack is potent but faces a compact Milan defense. Limited rest may...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
68%
Yes
AC Milan has scored in all of their last five home games, and Benfica has scored in all of their last five away games. Both teams possess st...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
yes
AC Milan's defense has conceded 6 goals in their last 5 home games, while Benfica has conceded 3 goals in their last 5 away games. Given bot...
DeepSeek V3
52%
no
Benfica's defensive record is excellent and Milan have shown they can keep things tight at home. With both teams capable of a clean sheet, t...
Spread
ConsensusBenfica 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
49%
AC Milan
Milan rarely win by two clear goals against top Portuguese sides. Benfica's current form suggests they can keep margins tight. Home spread b...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
60%
Benfica
Given the expectation of a tight contest and Benfica's excellent defensive record away from home, it's unlikely AC Milan will win by a margi...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
Benfica
Benfica's perfect away record and strong scoring rate suggest they can overcome a one-goal handicap. AC Milan's home draws indicate they can...
DeepSeek V3
34%
AC Milan -1
A one-goal Milan win is far more likely than a two-goal margin given Benfica's defensive solidity. The -1 spread is a stretch against a side...
Half-time / Full-time
ConsensusDraw / AC Milan 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
32%
Draw / AC Milan
Games often stay level at half-time before Milan push late. Benfica's high press can concede territory after the break. Form split supports...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
18%
Draw / AC Milan
Given the tactical nature of European games and the quality of both teams, a cagey first half leading to a draw is probable. AC Milan's home...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
45%
Draw / AC Milan
AC Milan's home draws suggest they might start slowly but finish stronger. Benfica's away form indicates they can score, but AC Milan's home...
DeepSeek V3
28%
AC Milan / AC Milan
Milan are most likely to lead at half and hold on given home advantage and Benfica's travel. However, European games often see a cagey first...
Correct score
Consensus2-1 2/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
18%
2-1
2-1 aligns with expected low-to-medium scoring and Milan's home edge. Benfica rarely keep clean sheets on the road in Europe. Training data...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
18%
2-1
A 2-1 scoreline for AC Milan aligns with the prediction of a narrow home win, both teams scoring, and the 'Over 2.5 Goals' market. Milan's a...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
25%
1-1
Given the strong attacking potential of both sides and AC Milan's tendency for draws at home, a 1-1 draw seems the most probable outcome. Bo...
DeepSeek V3
14%
1-0
A low-scoring, tight affair is the central scenario — Milan edging it 1-0 or a 1-1/2-1 outcome. Benfica's defensive record supports few goal...
Model confidence
Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
AC Milan
Grok 4 Fast
AC Milan
DeepSeek V3
AC Milan
Gemini 2.5 Flash
AC Milan
Model track records
LifetimeEvery graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.
Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.
Refresh the read
Team newsRe-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.
Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.
Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.
Beat the AIs · Predict the score
Call the exact final score
Free account. Pick the exact final score, lock it before kickoff, beat the AI consensus across the WC and win a lifetime free plan.
Team news
ProInjuries and confirmed lineups — the same team news the AIs factored into their reads.
Team news is a Pro feature
see exactly who's out and the XIs the AIs reasoned on, before kickoff.
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
bbe9eb1ebe31d787…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Sep 16 · 19:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Draw no bet · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 8. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 8, in this order): h2h | draw_no_bet | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 44119,
"sport": "football",
"venue": null,
"league": "UEFA Europa League",
"starts_at": "2026-09-16T19:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 16 Sep 2026 19:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Benfica",
"home": "AC Milan"
},
"version": "v2",
"sport_focus": [
"Weight CONFIRMED team news heavily: a missing first-choice striker, creator, or centre-back swings a match more than season-long form.",
"Compare attacking vs defensive quality directly — clean-sheet rate and goals-conceded trend often predict unders/BTTS better than the win line.",
"Set pieces decide tight games: note corner/free-kick threat and aerial mismatches.",
"Account for fixture congestion + likely rotation (midweek European or cup games before this one) and the home/away form split.",
"For outdoor venues, factor heavy rain or strong wind — both suppress goals and favour the under.",
"Tactical style matters: a high-press side vs a possession side, or two defensive setups, shapes the goals expectation."
],
"team_context": {
"note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
"away_form": {
"last": "WWWWW",
"record": "5W-0D-0L",
"scored": 15,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 3
},
"home_form": {
"last": "DDWWW",
"record": "3W-2D-0L",
"scored": 11,
"matches": 5,
"conceded": 6
},
"rest_days": {
"away": 3,
"home": 4
}
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"draw_no_bet",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
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