NFL
NFL Preseason
Upcoming · in 1373h 34m
AC
Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers
CPKickoff · Fri, Aug 7 · 00:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
36751d0bcf38c84f…
- Sport
- Fri, Aug 7 · 00:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · totals · spreads · first_half
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- Pick exactly one outcome per requested market.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Markets to predict (omit any you cannot pick from the brief): h2h | totals | spreads | first_half
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-10T18:25:34+00:00",
"event": {
"id": 157,
"sport": "american-football",
"league": "NFL Preseason",
"starts_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT",
"venue": null
},
"teams": {
"home": "Arizona Cardinals",
"away": "Carolina Panthers"
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"home": 2.05,
"away": 1.83
},
"extra_markets": {
"totals": [
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.89
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.89
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 35.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.9
}
],
"spreads": [
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.87
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.89
},
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.87
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 0,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.92
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.89
},
{
"point": -1,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.9
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 1.9
}
],
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.81
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.81
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.83
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.82
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.02
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.81
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.81
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.83
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.82
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.02
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Carolina Panthers",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Arizona Cardinals",
"price": 2.05
}
]
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line."
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_half"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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Bookmaker odds
10 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Arizona Cardinals | Draw | Carolina Panthers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draftkings | 2.02 | — | 1.82 |
| Betsson | 2.05 | — | 1.81 |
| Bovada | 2.05 | — | 1.80 |
| Gtbets | 2.00 | — | 1.83 |
| Nordicbet | 2.05 | — | 1.81 |
| Williamhill | 2.05 | — | 1.80 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draftkings | 35.5 | 1.89 | 1.93 |
| BetOnline | 35.0 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Betsson | 35.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Betus | 35.0 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Bovada | 35.5 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Gtbets | 35.5 | 1.92 | 1.92 |
| LowVig | 35.0 | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Nordicbet | 35.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Onexbet | 35.5 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Williamhill | 35.5 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Book | Arizona Cardinals | Carolina Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Draftkings | +1.5 @ 1.89 | -1.5 @ 1.93 |
| BetOnline | 0.0 @ 1.91 | 0.0 @ 1.91 |
| Betsson | +1.5 @ 1.90 | -1.5 @ 1.90 |
| Betus | 0.0 @ 1.91 | 0.0 @ 1.91 |
| Bovada | +1.5 @ 1.91 | -1.5 @ 1.91 |
| Gtbets | +1.5 @ 1.92 | -1.5 @ 1.92 |
| LowVig | 0.0 @ 1.95 | 0.0 @ 1.95 |
| Nordicbet | +1.5 @ 1.90 | -1.5 @ 1.90 |
| Onexbet | +1.5 @ 1.87 | -1.5 @ 1.95 |
| Williamhill | +1.0 @ 1.91 | -1.0 @ 1.91 |
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Betsson
Bovada
Draftkings
Gtbets
Nordicbet
Williamhill
Arizona Cardinals Carolina Panthers
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.